Journal

Volume 69, #1

“Economic Sciences: theory and practice” is scientific, refereed, biannual journal. The Journal of “Economic Sciences: theory and practice” has been founded by Azerbaijan State University of Economics in 1994.              
The Journal has been received to registration in the centre of international ISSN (International Standard Series Number, ISSN-2220-8739). Also, it has been included by the Supreme attestation Commission under the President of Azerbaijan Republic to the list of scientific publications on economic sciences.


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J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner Condition - The Case of Azerbaijan

Emin Zamin Huseynov, PhD student Institute for Scientific Research on Economic Reforms, Ministry of Economic Development of the Republic of Azerbaijan


Abstract. Research aim - the goal of this research paper was to establish the relationship between the exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat and international trade aggregates. To achieve this, we build a trade balance model between bilateral real exchange rate and the volumes of Azerbaijani exports and imports. Theoretical foundation - this research is based on decades of theoretical and empirical research on the topic of the J-curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition. Research results - Our results conclude that devaluation of the manat will cause the national trade balance to improve in the long run. In the short run, the balance of trade temporarily worsens due to the presence of a price effect. Limitations - our results are robust and consistent, although they are limited with data aggregation; future studies should employ disaggregated models. Practical implications - this paper puts quantified results on the tables of Azerbaijani policy makers, arguing for the possibility of trade balance improvement due to currency depreciation. originality and innovation - this paper’s originality is that there is no precedent in the study of the Azerbaijani J-curve and this research is both original and unique.

Keywords: Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve, real depreciation, manat, export and import price.

JEL Classification Codes: F31; F41