Page 46 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Hashim Al-Ali: An integrated macro-fiscal forecasting model and its application for
the Bangladesh economy

Model's Equations (Cont.) No.
g
g
I t = α g + μ ( I t-1 ((ADP t + NADP t ) / ( ADP t-1 + NADP t-1 )) + ε t 39
p
n
g
I t = I t - I t 40
n
I t = k ( X t – X t-1) 41
p
g
e

n
I t = I t + I t = S t + (NR t + RNI t + ONT t + ∆ NRV t ) 42

S t = X t - ( C t + G t + CS t ) 43
CS t = ρc (X t + M t ) 44
EG t = σ gt WGT t 45
EG t = ( 1 + r eg ) EG t-1 46

EO t = α E + γ 1 X t + γ 3 TOT t 47
EC t = EG t + EO t 48
ES t = λ es EC t 49
E t = EC t + ES t 50
t
n
M ct = α n + ν n1 X t + ʋ n2 P mt /P d + ν n3 M c t-1 51
i
i
i
i
i
i
t
M ct = α m + ν 1 X t + ʋ 2 P mt /P d + ν 3 M c t-1 52
Ms t = λ sp Mc t 53
54
M t = Mc t + Ms t
n
C t + G t + I t + CS t + E t = X t + M t 55
[ DEMAND SIDE ] [SUPPLY SIDE]
R t = TR t + NTR t 56
TR t = DTR t + ITR t 57
dtr t = α dt + σ y t 58
y t = X t / POP t , and dtr t = DTR t / POP t 59
ITR t = CUS t + VAT t
60
61
CUS t = α cust + τ M t
VAT t = (NRVAT t * V ATFC t-1 /RVAT t-1 ) (F t) 62
n
F t = C t + G t + I t 63
NTR t = ω ntr (X t ) 64
g
BB t = ( DTR t + ITR t + NTR t ) – ( WSA t + GS t + EFS t + FOCS t + GCO t + PDS t) – I t 65
BB t = ∆PD t , When BB t <Zero 66
PD t = PD t-1 + ∆PD t 67
PD t-1 = DD t-1 + ED t-1 68
DD t = p dd (PD t) 69
EDt = p ed (PD t) 70
RMD t = α md + Ɵ 1 GNI t + Ɵ 2 RINR t + Ɵ 4 SM t-1 + ε t 71
n
BOT t = E t - M t 72
e
CAB t = BOT t + NR t + ONT t 73
e
e
NR t = (1 + r e ) NR t-1 74
ONT t = (1 + r on) ONT t-1 75
FIR t = FIR t-1 + δ fi NCAPA t-1 76
RNI t = α RI + η NRV t-1 77
CAPAB t = RNI t - FIR t 78
BoPs t = CAB t + CAPAB t 79
∆NRV t = CAB t + CAPAB t = NRV t - NRV t-1 80
d
P t = α gov + s G t + ε t 81
d
P t = α vm + z ( NX t /M2 t ) + ε t 82
d
n
P t = α m + q Pm t + ε t 83
i
d
P t = α mp + q 1 Pm t + ε t 84
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