Page 11 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Hadouga. H: Prediction Of Agricultural Growth Rate As A Result Of Agricultural Reforms

The results of predicting the values of the time series inputs showed an increase in all
variables of agricultural reforms, including the agricultural labor variable, which gave
positive results to increase agricultural growth rates for the coming years for Algeria,
starting from the year 2023.

CONCLUSION
Accurate forecasting of the total agricultural growth rate is crucial in the framework
of agricultural reform policy. As Algeria has become highly dependent on the shift in
the use of new exports outside the hydrocarbon sector, and when the rate of
agricultural reform policies is increasing at an effective pace, accurate forecasting of
the rate of agricultural growth is important. This is because, through this, problems
related to the agricultural sector can be addressed effectively along with planning for
the stable growth of the economy

The development of the contribution of the agricultural product to the GDP fluctuated
between increase and decrease, and the lowest value of the contribution of the
agricultural sector was during the years (1982, 1983, 1984) by Contribution estimated
at: (5.96%, 5.28%, 5.21%), respectively.

As for the highest levels of this contribution, it was in the years (1989, 1992, 2001,
2003, 2016) with an estimated contribution of: (9.60%, 9.45%, 9.67%, 9.78%,
12.29%). However, despite these increases, especially in the recent period, the
contribution of the agricultural sector to the gross domestic product remains far from
the same.What is expected of it as a promising sector that possesses the qualifications
that enables it to play a good role in the Algerian economy, especially in light of the
risks Oil sector revenues declined.

The results of estimating the long-term relationship showed that agricultural bank
financing has a positive effect on agricultural growth, which means that agricultural
bank financing has a significant effect on the change in agricultural growth rates in
Algeria over the long term.

Agricultural mechanization has a positive and significant effect on agricultural
growth, which means that an increase in agricultural mechanization by one unit (a
2
tractor and an agricultural machine per 100 km ) leads to an increase in agricultural
growth in Algeria by 0.21% by 1.3%.

Agricultural lands have a positive and significant effect on agricultural growth, which
means that agricultural lands have an influence on the change in agricultural growth
rates in Algeria in the long term.

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