Page 10 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics
P. 10

THE                      JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.80, # 2, 2023, pp. 4-13

                    Table 4: ARIMA model for household expenses on food
                    Dependent Variable: D(EXPONFOOD)
                    Method: Least Squares
                    Date: 01/08/23   Time: 12:21
                    Sample (adjusted): 8 14
                    Included observations: 7 after adjustments
                    Failure to improve SSR after 11 iterations
                    MA Backcast: 2 7
                      Variable                  Coefficient      Std. Error      t-Statistic      Prob.





                      C                        6.787033       2.967827       2.286869      0.0841
                    AR(6)                      0.549085       0.450273       1.219449      0.2897
                    MA(6)                      -0.946182      0.342401      -2.763377      0.0507
                    R-squared                  0.990023  Mean dependent var               5.585714
                    Adjusted R-squared         0.985034  S.D. dependent var               2.927700
                    S.E. of regression         0.358159  Akaike info criterion            1.081849
                    Sum squared resid          0.513112  Schwarz criterion                1.058668
                    Log likelihood             -0.786472  Hannan-Quinn criter.            0.795332
                    F-statistic                198.4574  Durbin-Watson stat               2.036730
                    Prob(F-statistic)          0.000100

                    Using ARIMA models in  tables  2-4 Engel  curve components: household income,
                    expenses, expenses on food were forecasted for the next five years (table 5). Expenses
                    on food are calculated based on obtained data.

                    Table 5: Forecast results for Engel Curve components between 2022-2026
                                                                               Expenses on food (%
                     №  Years        Income      Expenses  Expenses on food
                                                                                     in total)
                     1    2022       309.10       315.76         141.71                0.45
                     2    2023       317.00       319.79         150.54                0.47
                     3    2024       324.36       325.76         154.98                0.48
                     4    2025       331.26       325.57         160.44                0.49
                     5    2026       337.73       330.36         166.44                0.50

                    According to table 5 it can be inferred that household income, expenses, and expenses
                    on food forecast for 2022-2026 will show relatively gradual increment in comparison
                    with factual data dinamics which markedly increased till 2021. It can also be derived
                    that expenses on food will increase from 45% to 50%. The trend patterns of forecasted
                    items are illustrated in  figure 1.






                                                           10
   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15