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Asif Alıyev: Forecasting of Engel Curve Components with the Application of ARIMA Method
Table 2: ARIMA model for household incomes
Dependent Variable: D(INCOME)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/08/23 Time: 10:57
Sample (adjusted): 3 14
Included observations: 12 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 17 iterations
MA Backcast: 2
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3.475553 13.10608 0.265186 0.7968
AR(1) 0.879029 0.128212 6.856054 0.0001
MA(1) -0.999931 0.155679 -6.423015 0.0001
R-squared 0.589464 Mean dependent var 14.63333
Adjusted R-squared 0.498234 S.D. dependent var 7.604464
S.E. of regression 5.386656 Akaike info criterion 6.418045
Sum squared resid 261.1446 Schwarz criterion 6.539271
Log likelihood -35.50827 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.373162
F-statistic 6.461285 Durbin-Watson stat 2.438545
Prob(F-statistic) 0.018200
Table 3: ARIMA model for household expenses
Dependent Variable: D(EXPENSES)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/08/23 Time: 12:58
Sample (adjusted): 7 14
Included observations: 8 after adjustments
Failure to improve SSR after 13 iterations
MA Backcast: 5 6
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -1.146122 21.55672 -0.053168 0.9609
AR(1) 0.095612 0.419764 0.227775 0.8345
AR(5) 0.489263 0.653582 0.748587 0.5085
MA(1) -0.646581 1.235461 -0.523352 0.6369
MA(2) 0.999303 1.159314 0.861978 0.4521
R-squared 0.783570 Mean dependent var 10.90000
Adjusted R-squared 0.494997 S.D. dependent var 5.668459
S.E. of regression 4.028208 Akaike info criterion 5.893691
Sum squared resid 48.67938 Schwarz criterion 5.943342
Log likelihood -18.57476 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.558815
F-statistic 2.715327 Durbin-Watson stat 2.341917
Prob(F-statistic) 0.219031
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