Page 41 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

RISK REDUCTION THROUGH OPTIMAL GRAZING SCENARIOS FOR LIVESTOCK/FORAGE
SYSTEMS IN TEXAS PANHANDLE

Key Words: Relative Risk, Ogallala Aquifer, Crop-Livestock Systems,

Wheat
JEL Classification Codes: Q12, Q15, Q20, Q24, Q25

Introduction

Agriculture in the Texas Panhandle region relies heavily upon

irrigation. By 1980, irrigated acres in the region reached 1,754,560. However,
between 1980 and 1997 irrigated acres declined to 1,363,438 acres as the

water availability in the Ogalalla aquifer declined and pumping costs
increased. A variety of entities compete for Ogallala aquifer water, including

municipal, industrial and conservation interests. Irrigated acres in the region
are therefore expected to continue to decline in the long-term due to economic

or political forces. Decline in irrigated acreage will result in increasing acreage

dedicated to dryland production systems. Additional factors may contribute to
a focus on dryland systems. Significant acreage in the Panhandle is enrolled in

the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), and many producers are evaluating
land use as they anticipate the expiration of CRP enrollments in the next few

years. Specifically, producers must choose between retaining dryland forages,
or converting CRP acreage to dryland grain, or other forage-livestock options

as they consider CRP land alternatives. Decision aids related to optimum

forage system management are therefore in demand.
Precipitation in the region is highly variable. In Amarillo, the annual

average precipitation over the last 60 years is 19.7 inches (NWS, 2009). However,

the range in annual precipitation is from less than 9 inches to over 40 inches.
There are pronounced year-to-year variations with as much as 15 to 20 inch

differences in consecutive years. A seasonal pattern adds to the variability. Over
50% of the annual precipitation is received from May through October. Regional

dryland systems therefore face significant production risk and are aided by
decision and management tools.

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