Page 44 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE

Methods

Mathematical models are developed for four production scenarios.
All scenarios address grazing systems, or systems that include both grazing

and grain production. Description of price and yield risk associated with the

scenarios is presented as well. Alternatives are chosen to represent the range
of diversity and constraints associated with small dryland acreages in the

study region. An additional four scenarios are developed by combining
elements of the original four, but results are not presented here. Scenario

descriptions and justification are below.
Scenario 1 (WH) includes 320 acres of dryland wheat, stocker cattle

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grazing from November 1 through February 28 , and grain harvest. Wheat
is the most prominent dryland crop in the region. Many producers may plant
wheat in rotation with sorghum, fallow, or other crops. However, given a

limited acreage, it is common that the entire acreage would be planted to a

single crop in a given year. Therefore, each of the four primary scenarios
assumes a single crop or forage. Scenario 2 (SS) includes 320 acres of
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dryland sorghum-sudan with stocker cattle grazing from July 1 through
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September 30 . Dryland sorghum-sudan is planted as early as May 15
depending upon spring precipitation and soil moisture. It may be planted as
late as mid-July in dry years. Scenario 3 (BS) includes 320 acres of Old

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World Bluestem grass available for stocker cattle grazing from July 1
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through September 30 . Regional acreage enrolled in the Conservation
Reserve Program (CRP) is largely established with bluestem or a grass

mixture including bluestem. Bluestem grass is a warm-season perennial with
the most rapid growth occurring during the late summer. Expiration of CRP

contracts is occurring in the region. Additionally, a significant portion of the
non-renewable acreage will come from the region. Some producers will

return expired CRP acreage to cropping, but many are encouraged to manage

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