Page 43 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

RISK REDUCTION THROUGH OPTIMAL GRAZING SCENARIOS FOR
LIVESTOCK/FORAGE SYSTEMS IN TEXAS PANHANDLE

Several researchers have studied the transition of irrigated to dryland

acreage in the Texas Panhandle. The implications of water policy were
reported by Almas et. al. (2009). The economic impact of irrigation in the

region has been explored by Colette et.al. (2008), and by Almas et al. (2008),

while Lust et. al. (2009) assessed the relative production risk associated with
several dryland forage-based production systems. Such studies characterize

the regional situation and may provide options suitable to the region as a
whole.

Several constraints define the production situation for producers in
the region. These include acreage, the availability of irrigation, forages or

crops present on the land (e.g. wheat, sorghum-sudan, native rangeland,

perennial grasses, other), livestock types, equipment and facilities,
contribution of owner labor, availability of hourly labor, and capital. In

addition, producers experience uncontrollable variation in yield (due to

precipitation) and market price. Thousands of production alternatives exist
for individual producers in the region based on various combinations of the

factors listed. It is possible via mathematical models to determine the
optimum situation from among a very large number of alternatives. In

addition, more than one optimum scenario may exist. Individual landowners,
however, are constrained by their individual situation, and may not be able to

take advantage of optimum combinations that are available within the region,

but not to them specifically. Models that are applicable to individual
producer situations are therefore valuable.

The objectives of this study are to characterize a range of production
alternatives for Texas Panhandle producers to determine optimum

alternatives for producers given their individual constraints, and to describe
the relative price risk and production risk for selected production

alternatives.

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