Page 54 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Hashim Al-Ali: An integrated macro-fiscal forecasting model and its application for
the Bangladesh economy

observations (number of time series/historical years), was the most difficult, cumbersome and time

consuming exercise during this assignment. However, the team was quite successful in handling this,
with higher degree of statistical reliability and efficiency. After having identified the data

requirement for applying the Bangladesh macro-fiscal forecasting model (BMFFM), and after the
statistical gaps being delineated, we have embarked on the task to build an integrated

macroeconomic database for the macroeconomic wing (MEW) of the finance division (FD) at the
MOF. This was the case, with the planned outcome of this macroeconomic database, to be a

complete set of data that required to calibrating our model. The final results of this lengthy exercise

was a complete, gapless, consistent and clean Excel-based spreadsheets macroeconomic database.
Such prepared, manipulated and used database, has covered, as inputs into the model, 22 years (

1990-2011), and over 82 variables (columns). These statistical data inputs, have been structured and

finalized to cover the real economy, fiscal, monetary, and external sector’s variables and indicators.
5.2 The Main Sources of the Original Statistical Data; The main sources of the data

that have been collected, manipulated, adjusted and finalized are, amongst others, the following:
 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)

 Bangladesh Bank (BB)
 Finance Division (FD), various Wings and Divisions, at the Ministry of Finance (MOF)

 National Board of Revenue (NBR)

 iBAS system at the MOF Project
 Export Promotion Bureau (EPB)

All the basic data by field and function have been collected from the related functional data
sources above, on real, fiscal, financial and external sectors of the economy. These basic data

being obtained through, among other means, published hard copies data, soft copies, from related
organizations web-site, through field visits, joint meetings and conference calls.

5.3 The Valuation and Pricing System for the model and its Variables; All the data that

we have collected, and those published by BBS, BB, FD and other data sources and data providers,
are shown in nominal term. However, most of the real sector data, particularly, those related to

GDP, on both supply and expenditure sides, are given in constant (real) 1995-96 prices as a base.

This is besides the fact that BBS is regularly compiling and disseminating a number of indices on
various economic variables. Notwithstanding, the first thing that we have contemplating, is to

change and rebase the base year that used to derive various variable in constant prices from 1995-

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