Page 58 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Hashim Al-Ali: An integrated macro-fiscal forecasting model and its application for
the Bangladesh economy

Table -5-: The Model's Main Coefficients and the Constant Terms

No. Symbol Value No. Symbol Value No. Symbol Value
1 αϰ 0.6672 19 ν 1k 0.9455 37 ϴ 1 0.1159
2 1-αϰ 0.3328 20 ν 2k 0.1795 38 ϴ 2 0.0092
3 A t 3.5879 21 ν 3k 0.7469 39 ϴ 3 0.9702
4 α lb -5.3104 22 α mr -29.6637 40 α gov -5.7549
5 l 0.6048 23 ν 1r 2.5775 41 s 0.8443
6 α 1 1.148 24 ν 2r 0.4988 42 α vm 5.6982
7 β 1 0.3291 25 ν 3r 0.214 43 z -1.2476
8 β 2 0.6798 26 α mc -12.1323 44 α m 0.3619
9 α g -3.9941 27 ν 1c 1.1928 45 q 0.9105
10 μ 1 1.3195 28 ν 2c 0.0852 46 α mk 0.6386
11 α E -9.8589 29 ν 3c 0.5583 47 q 1 0.871
12 γ 1 0.8097 30 α dt -9.145 48 α mr 0.006
13 γ 2 2.0556 31 σ 1.5183 49 q 2 0.9841
14 α m -11.5477 32 α cust 8.5279 50 α mc -0.3371
15 ν n1 1.5859 33 τ 0.1918 51 q 3 1.0261
16 ν n2 -1.4239 34 α ri 4.7947
17 ν n3 0.0889 35 η 0.3211
18 α mk -11.4383 36 α md -1.2498

The full economic definitions of these resultant coefficients are given on table -2-, section (3.2).

6.2 The Main Model’s Parameters and Exogenous Policy variables:
The model has been solved with the Bangladesh economic and statistical data of 1990-

2011 financial years, and accordingly, a base-case scenario solution has been established for
years 2012 to 2020. As the model design has been geared, in addition to its nature as forecasting

model, towards use as a policy tool for carrying out alternative scenario implications, the
model’s built-in mechanism and the solution has been structured in such a way that the impacts

of various changes in decision variable(s) can be determined and measured.

At this point in time, a number of policy variables, which are part of the model’s
fabrication and assumptions, can be selected, out of various derived and quantified parameters,

and used as developmental instruments; hence the effects of any change and its impact on the
economy can be realized.

This module of the programme deals with the Parameters definition and the value. There

are 41 Parameters and policy Scenario variables where their values are already defined, to derive
the best case solution as have been given in the model. The value of this policy variables, as it

57