Page 4 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.76, # 2, 2019, pp. 4-20

FUZZY LINGUISTIC FORECASTING OF SOCIAL MOBILITY

1
Imanov G. J ., Aliyev A.Z 2

1 Prof. Dr., Control Systems Institute of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences
2 Phd. student, Research and Training Center for Labor and Social problems, Baku,
Azerbaijan
e-mail: msc.aaliyev@gmail.com

ABSTRACT:
In the article the mobility of social groups is estimated and predicted in order to
investigate and analyze the wellbeing situation in the context of sustainable
development in the Republic of Azerbaijan, to make proposals and
recommendations for development in this direction. The examining of welfare,
social inequality, and poverty has concluded that these indicators are not always
sufficient to comprehend. In order to gain a complete picture, it is necessary to study
income mobility or change of population income over time. If social mobility is high
enough, concerns about the uneven distribution of income in the society can be
diminished, resulting in unnecessity for redistribution of income at the societal level.
In this paper we estimated mobility for social strata based on the H. Theil, and G. S.
Fields and E. A. Ok indices and forecasted data through a fuzzy linguistic Markov
chain for the next time period. Constructed models can be useful in the development
of policies for poverty elimination and sustainable economic development.

Key words: social groups, social mobility, fuzzy linguistic markov chain

Jel classification: C02, J60

I. Introduction
Mobility is an important concept in several branches of social science and
economics. The way it has been conceived has depended on the particular
application or even the particular data set under consideration. Different parts of the
literature have focused on income or wealth, wage, educational mobility, and
mobility in terms of social class. As a consequence of this diversity, the
measurement of mobility is an intellectual problem that has been addressed from
many different standpoints. Mobility measures are sometimes defined, explicitly or
implicitly, in relation to a specific dynamic model, sometimes as an abstract
distributional concept similar to inequality, polarization, dispersion, and so on
(Cowell and Flachaire, 2018).

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