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Gorkhmaz Imanov, Asif Aliyev : Fuzzy Linguistic Forecasting of Social Mobility



                                                              
                                                             
                                                  
                                                              
                                            T(   ) =  ∑     (  ln           )         (8)
                                                                        
                                                  
                                                         =1
                                                                       

                    where      is the mean of equivalent incomes in the final period.
                    Mobility is measured using the approach proposed by G. S. Fields and E. A. Ok
                                                                  e
                                                            e
                    (1999), considering the transformation  X  → Y

                                               
                                     M (   ,    ) =                                 (9)
                                            

                    Using the same way mentioned above we adjust it for social groups:

                                                               
                                                                         
                                                
                                            
                                     M (   ,    ) = ∑     (|ln(   ) − ln(   )|)        (10)
                                           
                                                               
                                               
                                                                              
                                                                         
                                                      =1

                                                                                                   G
                    Total  mobility  is  decomposed  into  three  elements:  mobility  due  to  growth  (M ),
                                                                                      E
                                                         D
                    mobility resulting from dispersion (M ) and exchange mobility (M ). To this end,
                    the following transformation function is considered according to Van  Kerm  (2004):

                                                                
                                                                      
                                                         
                                                →        →    →         (11)
                                                 

                    where  µ =     is the mean of of equivalent incomes in the intermediate period,
                       
                              
                           
                                     
                                                                                                    
                        (   ,    , … ,    ) –  is intermediate distribution, defined as final distribution     of
                            2
                                     
                         1
                    equivalent income, ranked according to    .
                                                              

                    Thus, the components of total mobility is obtained:

                                                     
                                                        
                               
                                         
                                            
                           
                        
                       (   ,    ) =   (     ,    ) −   (   ,    ) =
                                                        
                              
                           
                                           
                                       
                                                     
                        
                       (   ,    ) =   (   ,    ) −   (     ,    ) =                       -

                              
                                       
                        
                           
                                                    
                                                       
                                           
                       (   ,    ) =   (   ,    ) −   (   ,    ) =                        -
                                                           (12)

                    Thus, mobility components adjusted for social groups take the form:






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