Journal

Volume 71, #2

   “Economic Sciences: theory and practice” is scientific, refereed, biannual journal. The Journal of “Economic Sciences: theory and practice” has been founded by Azerbaijan State University of Economics in 1994.              
The Journal has been received to registration in the centre of international ISSN (International Standard Series Number, ISSN-2220-8739). Also, it has been included by the Supreme attestation Commission under the President of Azerbaijan Republic to the list of scientific publications on economic sciences.


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Modellıng the ınflationary processes and forecastıng: an applıcatıon of arıma, sarıma models

Murad Yusifov candidate for PhD. Baku State University


Abstract. The purpose of this research is to model the inflationary processes on the based of autoregressive and moving average processes and determine the short-term inflation forecasting model. Modelling the inflationary processes and forecasting estimation assume great importance while developping the investment projects, indexation of wages, predetermining the macroeconomic policy and preventive measures. The advanced forecasting models such as ARIMA and SARIMA have been applied in this study.

Keywords: ARIMA, SARIMA, inflationary processes, forecasting.

JEL classification Codes: P24; P44; C53; E27