ABSTRACT
Engel curve coefficient is still actual to obtain some information about wellbeing and poverty level in the country based on structure of households’ budget expenses, more exactly through the ratio of food expenses on overall expenses. There exist numerous researches in this course covering household demand behavior effects on Engel curve. In the current paper we consider only middle-income group in population and ignore other factors affecting as income interval changes. The question of interest is the prediction of Engel curve components as an indicator of middle social group well-being. The forecast of Engel curve components for the next few years is carried out using ARIMA model.

Key words: Engel curve components, ARIMA model, time series forecasting.

Jel Classification: C32, C53, D63