Page 40 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.71, # 1, 2014, pp. 40-52

FORECASTING OF OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION IN AZERBAIJAN ON THE BASIS
1
OF HUBBERT’S MODEL

D.e.s., prof. Gorkhmaz Imanov
Institute of Cybernetics of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, d.e.s., prof.

Yadulla Hasanli
Head of the Laboratory of Modeling of Social-Economic Processes of the Institute of
Cybernetics of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, d.e.s., prof.

e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected])

Received 25 Desember 2013; accepted 14 May 2014; published online 15 July 2014

Abstract

In work the Hubbert’s model of oil and gas production is investigated. Using the applicable

statistical data, econometric models of oil and gas extraction in Azerbaijan are valued. Further,

on the basis of the models constructed for Azerbaijan the oil and gas extraction bulk is predicted.

Keywords: oil and gas production, Hubbert model, econometric modeling.

JEL Classification Codes: L95; Q47;C53;E17

Introduction: in XIX century the demand for crude oil increased due to the technical

development as well as development of the internal-combustion engine. Although there is wide

range of researches dedicated to the development of alternative energy sources, the world

economy is still significantly depending on the crude oil and its derivative products. The

dependence of the world economy on oil resources is not avoidable while oil exploration is still

efficient and these resources do not fade out. It is widely known that the oil and gas resources are

scare. From this point of view the forecasting of the carbohydrate reserves is on agenda.

1 The research work was conducted in 2013 based on grant announced by the Scientific Fund of State Oil Company
of Azerbaijan Republic.
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