Page 44 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.71, # 1, 2014, pp. 40-52

LOG(OIL_PRODUCTION) = 1.55235566774 + 0.104443964419*@TREND +

+0.392002243766*DAMMY (7)

or

Oil production = 4.722582*e 0.104443964419*t (1+u) (8)

The statistical features of (7) or (8) and relevant testing proved the adequacy the current model.

The value of the determination ratio (R2=0.949624) shows that the volumes of oil production in

Azerbaijan during these years depended on time factors and financial crisis at 95%. The

remaining 5% incurred due to the other factors not considered in the model.

Thus the results of the model (7) and (8) show that at the normal distribution (Quass) the

growth of the oil production (a) in the Azerbaijan is approximately equal to

or 10.44%: a (oil) = .

We can estimate by the same method the growth of gas production: a (gas) =

0.107244531296.

According to the equations (1) and (2) the cumulative and current oil and gas production

will be calculated (for oil till 2030 and for gas till 2075). The results of our calculations were

provided in Appendixes. Please note that the maximum oil reserves were estimated as 1 billion

tones and maximum gas reserves were estimated as 2 trillion cubic meters.

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