Page 48 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.71, # 1, 2014, pp. 40-52

If we compare the Graph 4 and Graph 5, we can see that they are quite close to each other.

We have identified the gas exploration based on similar model as following.

QP_GAZ = 0.189176922337*CQP_GAZ - 0.0000960239391647*CQP_GAZ^2 (10)

As we can see from the econometric model (10) , .

1970.594 billion cubic meters

In other words, according to model (10) the average value of the gas reserves in Azerbaijan

is evaluated as 1970.594 billion cubic meters. The forecast of gas exploration was calculated

based on model (9) and presented in Graph 6 below.

120
Forecast: QP_QAZF
100 Actual: QP_QAZ
Forecast sample: 1990 2075
80 Included observations: 86
Root Mean Squared Error 7.396403
60 Mean Absolute Error 6.161577
Mean Abs. Percent Error 50.35100
40 Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.074648
Bias Proportion 0.050063
20 Variance Proportion 0.126197
Covariance Proportion 0.823740
0

-20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

QP_QAZF ± 2 S.E.

Graph 6. The production of gas exploration in Azerbaijan billion cubic meters

Literature

[1] Douglas B. Reynolds and Marek Kolodziej «North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast:
The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions», Energies 2009, 2, 269-306;

doi:10.3390/en20200269, www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
[2] Ugo Bardi and Alessandro Lavacchi «A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of

Resource Exploitation», Energies 2009, 2, 646-661; doi:10.3390/en20300646, ISSN 1996-
1073, www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

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