Page 45 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Gorkhmaz Imanov, Yadulla Hasanli: Forecasting of oil and gas extraction in Azerbaijan on the basis
of Hubbert’s model

Graph 1. Forecasting of oil production in Azerbaijan according to the Hubbert’s model.

Graph 2. Forecasting of gas production in Azerbaijan according to the Hubbert’s model:

a=0.107245, T(max)=2030, QP=107.

As we can see from the Graph above the gas production will reach its peak by 2030 and

then start to decline till 2075. We would like to note that this result was obtained in conditions of

growth equal to 0.107244531296 (10.7 %). It is widely known that in 2013 Azerbaijan signed

agreement with two international companies for gas exploration. This agreement considered the

significant inflow of foreign investments into Azerbaijan. Surely, during this period the gas

production will increase significantly. If we take the growth of gas exploration as 0.2 (20%), we

will get the following results (Graph 3).

45