Page 41 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Gorkhmaz Imanov, Yadulla Hasanli: Forecasting of oil and gas extraction in Azerbaijan on the basis
of Hubbert’s model

Various researchers applied the various methods for estimation of crude oil reserves. [1-8].

The econometric models based on physics, mathematics, economy and technology [1, 9, 10, 11,

12]. Recently the Monte-Carlo simulation models and artificial intelligence modules were used

for these purposes.

The Hubbert’s model is one of the most widely used models for estimation of the oil and

gas reserves. At the first time Hubbert estimated the oil and gas reserves of USA in 1956 [3].

Since that time owing to its reliability and simplicity it was widely used in number of countries

over the world for estimation of national oil and gas reserves.

Metodogy: the standard Hubbert Model, which is based on Richard’s function, defines

the following model for the production [1, p.278]:

(1)

Here, CQP is cumulative (increasing) production, maximum extracted resource,

peak production year or 1 parameter, which defines the initial norm of the production.

The derivative of the cumulative production from the time is QP = dCQP/dt, or:

(2)

here, QP is a current level of production or annual volume.

The alternative view on the Hubbert’s curve is to treat the cumulative production volume

( ) as a function of cumulative production ( ). In this case the relation between these two

determinates can be shown as following:

(3)

Parameters are evaluated as a limit of cumulative volume of resource (maximum) and

can be determined in the following way:

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