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THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES: THEORY AND PRACTICE, V.71, # 2, 2014, pp. 66-80

moving average model ARIMA(2,0,1). Short-term inflation forecasting on these models show

that yearly inflation rate for the next year will be single digit. Hence, forecasting using the above

mentioned models predicts the price stability in the next year. This study assumes scientific and

practical importance in determining the monetary policy in the economy.

References

[1] Ezekiel N.N.Nortey,Benedict Mbeah-Baiden,Julis B.Dasah və Feliks O.Mettle, ―Modelling

rates of inflation in Ghana:An application of ARCH Models‖,Current Research Journal of

economic Theory 6(2):16-21, 2014

[2] S.O.Adams, A.Awujola,A.I.Alumgudu, ―Modelling Nigeria`s consumer price index using

ARIMA model‖, International Journal of Development and Economic sustainability,

Vol.2,No.2,pp.37-47,June 2014

[3] Ekpenyong, Emmanuel John, Omekara, C.O, Ekerete Michael Peter, ― Modelling inflation

rates using Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis Methods: The Nigerian

Case‖,International Journal of African and Asian studies, Vol.4, 2014.

[4] Sani I.Duguwa and Sarah O. Alade, ―Short-term inflation forecasting Models for Nigeria‖,

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics Vol.4,No.2,December,2013.

[5] Damodar N. Gujarati. (2004). Basic Econometrics, 4th edition. (Damodar N. Qujarati.

(2004), Ekonometrikanın əsasları, 4-cü nəşr, ―McGraw-Hill companies‖ 2004, 1003p.

[6] Robert E.Lukas, ―Econometric policy Evaluation:A Critique,‖ in Carnegie-Rochester

Conference Series, The Phillips Curve, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1976, p.19-46.

[7] Paulo Rotela Junior,Fernando Luiz Riera Salomon,Edson de Oliveira Pamplona, ―ARİMA: An

Applied times series forecasting model for the Bovespa Stock İndex‖,Applied Mahematics, 2014,

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