Page 79 - Azerbaijan State University of Economics

Murad Yusifov: Modelling the inflationary processes and forecasting:an application of ARIMA,
SARIMA models

[8] Jiban Chandra Paul,Shahidul Hoque, Muhammad Morshedur Rahman, ―Selection of Best

ARIMA Model for forecasting average dailiy share price index of pharmaceutical companies in

Bangladesh: A case study on square pharmaceutical Ltd, Global Journal of Management and

Business Research Finance, Vol.13,Issue.3,Version 1.0,2013,Publisher Global Journal Inc.USA.

[9] Yadulla Hasanli, Introductory Econometrics,manual,2008,p.151.,236.

[10] Statistics Bulletins of Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan 2009-2014.

ANNEX.1.

Graph.2.Correlogram

Sample: 2009M01 2014M12
Included observations: 72

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob

. |**** | . |**** | 1 0.585 0.585 25.719 0.000

. |** | .*| . | 2 0.289 -0.081 32.095 0.000
. | . | .*| . | 3 0.070 -0.100 32.479 0.000
.*| . | **| . | 4 -0.166 -0.226 34.630 0.000
***| . | **| . | 5 -0.368 -0.239 45.417 0.000
***| . | . | . | 6 -0.362 -0.002 56.009 0.000

***| . | .*| . | 7 -0.353 -0.133 66.209 0.000
**| . | . | . | 8 -0.266 -0.031 72.082 0.000
. | . | . |*. | 9 -0.016 0.173 72.103 0.000
. |*. | . | . | 10 0.154 0.029 74.146 0.000

. |*** | . |** | 11 0.358 0.248 85.365 0.000
. |**** | . |*. | 12 0.497 0.171 107.28 0.000
. |*** | .*| . | 13 0.387 -0.097 120.78 0.000
. |*. | .*| . | 14 0.142 -0.145 122.64 0.000
. | . | .*| . | 15 -0.044 -0.101 122.82 0.000

**| . | . | . | 16 -0.221 -0.038 127.48 0.000
**| . | . | . | 17 -0.331 0.036 138.06 0.000
***| . | .*| . | 18 -0.410 -0.165 154.65 0.000
***| . | . | . | 19 -0.348 0.037 166.86 0.000

**| . | .*| . | 20 -0.276 -0.107 174.64 0.000

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